Monday, May 2, 2011

The Race For Fourth (Or Third?) — 4 games to go.

Manchester City moved within touching distance of the all-important Champions League place, courtesy of a 2-1 victory over West Ham. Coupled with Tottenham's recent failures against West Bromich Albion and Chelsea, fourth place is really City's to throw away.

It's at this point where the maths become extremely simple.

Tottenham sit on 55 points, with four matches to play — and two of those are formidable fixtures against City and Liverpool away from home.

The absolute most points they can amass from those fixtures is twelve, which would bring their total to 67. Therefore, with Manchester City currently sitting on 62, and with a vastly superior goal difference to the chasing pack — all it will take is five more points from the next four fixtures for City to be almost mathematically certain (massive goal-difference swing aside) of finishing in the top four.

Even the most pessimistic fan would find it hard to devise a scenario where City could now miss out on qualification. Being as conservative as possible, Manchester City should pick up a minimum of four points from the final four fixtures.

Both Everton and Tottenham have presented many problems for City in the past, so it's difficult to predict wins against either of the two — as long as City don't lose on 10 May against Spurs at Eastlands, then qualifcation is all but assured.

4. Manchester City
Games played: 34
Goal difference: +22
Recent form: 4 wins, and 2 losses. 12 points from the last 18 (4th).
Points: 62

Upcoming Fixtures:
A Everton (7th)
H Tottenham (6th)
FA Cup Final: Stoke City
H Stoke City (10th)
A Bolton (8th)
Predicted points total: 66 (4 more)

5. Liverpool
Games played: 35
Goal difference: +15 (7 worse off than City)
Recent form: 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. 13 points from the last 18 (2nd).
Points: 55 (seven behind City)

Upcoming Fixtures:
A Fulham (9th)
H Tottenham Hotspur (6th)
A Aston Villa (13th)
Predicted points total: 62 (7 more)

6. Tottenham Hotspur
Games played: 34
Goal difference: +7 (15 worse off than City)
Recent form: 1 win, 4 draws, and 1 loss. 7 points from the last 18 (13th).
Points: 55 (seven behind City)

Upcoming Fixtures:
H Blackpool (17th)
A Manchester City (4th)
A Liverpool (5th)
H Birmingham City (15th)
Predicted points total: 63 (8 more)


  1. I believe Liverpool will beat spurs next weekend and pip them to the 5th spot. It would also mean we only need 3 points for certain qualification if they do.

  2. Simplest way to get 4th place would be just to beat Spurs
    That would leave us on 65 and Spurs and The Bin Dippers with a max of 64.
    Sweet revenge too.

    Nice site. Hope one day to join you guys for a pint except most of the time I get to Aus it's either Perth (rellies) or Adelaide (work).

    Any of you guys would be welcome on - we have members in Ireland, France, Wales, Cambodia, Canada and the Isle of Man. Oh, and Manchester!


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